Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with geoeconomist Douglas Rediker (Senior Fellow at Brookings and formerly with the IMF Executive Board) about the enduring dominance of the U.S. dollar and why it won't change any time soon.

Why the dollar continues to have no realistic alternatives and why Chinese renminbi is not a viable replacement. Also, what are the prospects and obstacles for seizing Russia's Central Bank Reserves to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction and other budget needs. And is there anything that China can do to diminish the impact of any future U.S. sanctions if it choose to invade Taiwan?

On the train ride to Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Franz Stefan Gady, one of the premier European military analysts, about why American military involvement in Europe is unlikely to be significantly reduced in the coming years and the dangers that a US conflict with China may present to European security.

They discuss the slow pace of European military modernization, Germany's hesitancy to embrace AI and autonomy and why US remains an indispensable political and military power in NATO when it comes providing security in Europe.

Music: Ode to Joy by Ludwig van Beethoven

On the train ride back to Poland from Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (President of Ukraine Defense Fund, a charity that provides non-lethal aid to the Ukrainian military) about how various types of drones are used for artillery correction, target identification and strike missions in Ukraine.

They discuss why Chinese drones such as DJI Mavic and Matrice are superior to Western commercial alternatives, why Starlink is irreplaceable, why friendly fire is responsible for over half of commercial drone losses, and how electronic warfare is affecting drone navigation and communication and what countermeasures are being employed. Also, why developing jailbreaks for the latest DJI drone models is a critical need for the Ukrainian military.

Music: "I am Ukraine" by Nastia Kamenskikh (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofspgP0cKbE)

Guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about his recent trip to Kyiv and what he learned from his meetings with senior military and intelligence leadership there.

Dmitri also interviews Mike Kofman and Rob Lee during their train ride to Kyiv about the current state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and their thinking on the fallout from the Wagner mutiny

Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saEpkcVi1d4

In this edition of Geopolitics Decanted guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about Evgeny Prigozhin's so-called "March for Justice". What was it all about? Did it fail or succeed? What does Putin's reaction tell us about what will happen next in Russia?

Music: Battle Hymn of PMC Wagner (https://rutube.ru/video/3152ef2154f8d3bd9aa0aeb82fa3d77d/)

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee about this week's launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive: what are its objectives, how can we determine when it's successful, and what is likely to come next. Also covered: Why Kakhovka dam destruction is unlikely to have an impact on the counteroffensive, Prigozhin's trap for Russian Military leadership in Bakhmut, implications of attacks on Russian border regions in Belgorod, impact of Storm Shadow long range missiles and why Russia continues to avoid sending conscripts into the war. 

Music: "Song about Berdyansk" by Oleg Kenzov (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgZXdROLaHg)

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the evolution of AI with Teddy Collins (former Assistant Director for Technology Strategy at the White House, Research Scientist at Google’s DeepMind and co-author of "Teams of Teams" with General Stan McChrystal):

- The AI triad of Talent/Algorithms, Data and Compute which has driven so much improvement in the last 5 years

- How AI could disproportionally benefit the large and rich technology platform companies

- The challenge of Sim2Real jump and why using AI to solve many real-world problems in the physical world could still be years away

- Why AI is unlikely to give an edge to attackers or defenders in cybersecurity

- The dark side of AI

- And what might be the most profound implications for societal change driven by AI

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Chris Miller, author of the recent New York Times bestseller Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, about one of the central elements of the US-China confrontation: semiconductors. Topics discussed include:
- Which chips are more critical: advanced or foundational (aka mature)
- The history of how Taiwan's TSMC had become the world's #1 chipmaker and China's attempts to follow in their footsteps
- The effect of US export controls on China's semiconductor industry and China's retaliatory options
- Why Taiwan chose to undermine its own Silicon Shield strategy
- Whether the US is likely to attempt to destroy Taiwan's fabs if China succeeds in conquering the island
- Whether the US chips fabs can be price-competitive with Asian manufacturers?
- Why Korea will likely not become the new Taiwan as a world leader in semiconductor manufacturing
- And much more

Music: "Trade War" by Zhao Liangtian (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3012160/man-behind-viral-chinese-hit-trade-war-turns-volume-singing)