Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 01:52:38 +0000

Three weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and reopening it may be far harder and slower than many may realize. Dmitri Alperovitch talks to RADM Mark Montgomery (Ret.), who has transited the strait 25+ times and lays out what it will actually take, why Kharg Island is a distraction, and the possible uncomfortable timeline for return to normalcy.

00:00 Introduction

01:09 Threat Environment in the Strait of Hormuz

03:37 Military Strategies for Reopening the Strait

05:19 Cruise Missile Threat

11:43 Tackling the Mine Problem

19:57 Convoy Operations in the Persian Gulf

26:43 Kharg Island

31:41 How long to return of normal traffic in the Gulf?

36:14 The Endgame 42:20 The Houthi problem

What Happens if the Supreme Court Kills Trump’s Tariffs?

Sat, 15 Nov 2025 04:31:30 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes of this constitutional challenge, including whether the government might have to refund the substantial tariff revenues already collected and how the administration could respond should the Court rule against them. 00:00 Introduction 02:16 Types of Tariffs Currently in Place 12:13 Supreme Court Timeline and the Issue of Refunds 14:33 Alternative Tariff Options 22:14 A New Weapon for the Trump Administration: Section 338 Tariffs 31:14 Back to the Future With an Old Tool: Section 421 Tariffs 38:14 Why Countries Shouldn't Rush to Celebrate Potential End of IAEPA Tariffs

Why The China Trade Truce Is Unlikely to Last

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 04:00:07 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.

00:00 Introduction

01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting

08:43 The Rare Earths Truce

11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal

12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments

16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year

17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World

18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal

20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export

Keeping Russian Economy Afloat: Kremlin's Economic High Wire Act

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 18:55:01 +0000

Is Russia close to an economic collapse? Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, to assess how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going.

00:00 Introduction

01:17 Current State of the Russian Economy

10:02 Budget Challenges and Military Spending

19:29 Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions

30:10 Economic Headwinds

32:20 Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries

Why Drones Can’t Replace Traditional Firepower

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 22:45:48 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to air power expert Justin Bronk about why it's a bad idea for Western militaries to follow Ukraine's lead and overly invest in production of small drones like FPVs and other loitering munitions. They also dive into best counter-drone strategies, as well as the implications of Ukraine's Operation SpiderWeb and Israel's forward deployed drones neutralizing Iranian air defenses during Operations Rising Lion for strategies to protect aircraft and air-defenses against such threats.

00:00 Introduction

00:28 Why NATO Should Not Follow Ukraine Into Overreliance on Drones

09:22 Small FPVs vs Other Drone Types

15:42 Best Strategy for Effective Anti Drone Defense

26:06 Would Ukraine Be Better Off Spending Money on Conventional Systems?

28:01 Orchestration of Combined Arms Warfare

29:11 Does Ukraine Need More FPVs or Artillery?

31:33 Can America Afford to Invest in Both Small Drones and Conventional Systems?

34:06 Options for Neutralizing Air Defenses

36:53 The State of Russian Air Defenses

38:53 How to Protect Air Forces Against Operation SpiderWeb-style drone tactics

44:35 Assessing the Efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s

NATO Should Not Replace Traditional Firepower with ‘Drones’: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/nato-should-not-replace-traditional-firepower-drones

Why America's Nuclear Deterrence Strategy Needs to Change

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 05:46:21 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vipin Narang, a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, a portfolio which includes U.S nuclear weapons employment strategy, about why we are now entering the New Nuclear Age and the urgent changes that the United States has to make to its nuclear deterrence posture and strategy. They also debate the utility of counterforce vs countervalue nuclear targeting approaches and how believable the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence is to allies.

00:00 Introduction

00:57 Israel-Iran War

11:47 CAT5 Hurricane of Nuclear Threats

13:50 Is China Preparing to Fight a Nuclear War?

18:04 Debating Counterforce vs. Countervalue Nuclear Targeting Strategies

24:32 Is Nuclear Extended Deterrence Believable to Allies?

40:02 Is Pakistan Building ICBMs to Target the United States?

42:44 Does America Need Mobile ICBM Launchers?

How to Survive the New Nuclear Age by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-survive-new-nuclear-age-narang-vaddi

Assessing the Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 10:18:45 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert, to assess the damage that has been inflicted upon the Iranian nuclear program over the course of the past 11 days and potential for reconstitution.

00:00 Introduction

00:49 Assessment of Damage to Each Part of the Iranian Nuclear Program

07:34 What is the Level of Difficulty of Reconstitution?

09:53 Did Iran Evacuate Fordow?

11:55 The Importance of the 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium issue

12:49 Where Is the New Secret Enrichment Facility?

13:58 What Are the Nonproliferation Lessons From This War?

16:26 Impact of the Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists

18:16 Capabilities of Iran's Ballistic Missiles

20:27 Origins of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Designs

22:46 Is There a Legitimate Need for Iran to Have Uranium Enrichment?

24:45 Was The War Worth It?

32:31 What Will Iran Do Next?

The Israel-Iran War: Possibilities and the Dangers of Overreach

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 02:19:11 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Israeli Gen Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three Middle Eastern nuclear weapons programs: first, as an F-16 pilot in 1981 against Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, as Head of Military Intelligence in 2007 against Syrian nuclear reactor Al Kibar, and in various IDF roles for the last nearly 20 years planning the current operation against Iran.

00:00 Introduction

01:29 Strategic Objectives of the Operation Against Iran

07:30 How to Deal With Fordow Enrichment Facility

08:16 Shocking Success

11:20 Danger of Euphoria

14:08 Where Are the Iranian Proxies?

15:40 Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

18:00 Khamenei's Psychological State and Strategic Decisions

20:56 Likelihood of Regime Change

23:38 Implications for the Broader Middle East

Why North Korea Is Planning a Second Korean War and How to Stop It

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 15:46:50 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea?

15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy?

18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use

22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea

27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia

29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia

35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship

40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender?

44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs

47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea

51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea

54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers

01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea

01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy?

Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html

The One Factor That Could Crash the Russian Economy

Fri, 03 Jan 2025 02:10:11 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer about the state of the Russian economy in 2025. They talk about inflation and its impact on people and business, why the ruble is collapsing, which sanctions have been the most impactful, and the one thing that could potentially trigger a crash and give Ukraine leverage to negotiate an acceptable peace deal

Putin’s Nuclear Meltdown

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 00:48:20 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

They discuss:

- Putin's frustrations about limitations of nuclear blackmail and his responses to the ATACMS targeting decision by the Biden Administration

- What the new Russian nuclear doctrine means for World War III prospects

- What the Ukraine conflict teaches us about nuclear deterrence theory

- Putin's real redlines

- Implications of the Oreshik (RS 26) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against Ukraine

- Why ballistic missile notification regime is a GoodThingTM

- The resumption of the Iranian nuclear warhead design program - How to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup

- How many nukes does the US need for comprehensive deterrence

Russian nuclear doctrine changes thread by Oleg Shakirov: https://x.com/shakirov2036/status/1858810939652370886

Inside the Drone War Arms Race in Ukraine

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 04:26:22 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine.

They discuss:

- How Ground Unmanned Vehicles (GUVs) are being used in battle

- 3rd Generation FPV drones

- Quadcopter bombers

- Mass-market EW systems

- Fiber optics C2

- EW recon units

- Use of aerial drones for anti-drone/aircraft warfare

- Impact of Chinese export controls

- Thermite 'Dracarys' drones

- Mothership drones

- Long-range deep strike drones

- Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance drones

- How Starlink is giving Russia an advantage!

- How commercial satellite imagery of Ukrainian lands may be playing into Russia's hands

- Why the US and Ukrainian use-cases for drone warfare are so dramatically different

- Introduction of autonomy in unmanned systems

Ukraine Invades Russia: What’s Next? Interview with Ukrainian Combat Vet

Thu, 15 Aug 2024 06:54:50 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Constantine Kalinovskiy (@Teoyaomiquu), a Ukrainian combat vet with friends currently in battle, about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve tactical surprise with their August 6th offensive into Russian Kursk oblast, the achievable objectives of this operation and the risks that it brings.

They discussed the achievements to date, the potential for holding newly captured Russian territory and the challenges that the Ukrainian forces currently face there.

Constantine also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, LibertyUkraine.org, is providing vital and life saving combat support engineering equipment like excavators and generators to Ukrainian troops.

Ukraine Finally Has F-16s. What Now?

Thu, 01 Aug 2024 07:44:39 +0000

After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons platform?

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and and the editor of a just released book "The Air War in Ukraine."

They discussed why F-16s will not play a transformative role on the battlefield, why Ukraine still needs Swedish Gripens, the opportunities for the use of Harpoons on F-16s to target Black Sea Fleet, opportunities for integration of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the growing danger presented by Russian surveillance drones penetrating deeper and deeper into Ukrainian territory which is driving the urgency for development of anti-UAV UAV solutions, PATRIOT battery performance so far in Ukraine and discussion on the longer-term future of air power and integration challenges of combat jets with unmanned loyal wingman systems.

Music: Zaporizhian March

How China Might Invade Taiwan: A World on the Brink Scenario

Tue, 30 Apr 2024 00:00:04 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch and his co-author Garrett Graff discuss their upcoming book “World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century” and include an exclusive audiobook excerpt from the book that lays out in great detail how China is likely to go about its invasion of Taiwan.

In addition, Dmitri and Garrett discuss:

- Why they wrote this book

- What’s a stake in the potential conflict with China over Taiwan

- Dmitri’s battles against Chinese IP theft over the course of his career

- Why Taiwan matters to the United States

- Why America will not achieve chips independence from Taiwan for the foreseeable future

- Why Taiwan never fully belonged to China

- Timeline for potential invasion and why invasion is unlikely to take place in 2027

- Why we are in a Cold War II with China that is remarkably similar to Cold War I with the Soviet Union

- Strategy for victory in Cold War II

- How to deter an invasion of Taiwan

If you found this podcast interesting, please consider ordering the book from your favorite book stores or online at https://WorldOnTheBrink.com and writing a review!

New Secrets From the Cold War and Lessons for Cold War II With China

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 05:15:23 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War's preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey's unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese archives.

They discussed China's role in causing Khrushchev to initiate the Cuban Missile Crisis, a huge Soviet intelligence failure that caused the Korean War and Brezhnev's attempts to prevent Nixon's downfall in Watergate.

Sergey and Dmitri also discussed their upcoming books, which are both publishing in the next few weeks, on Cold War I history and the history and strategy of Cold War II with China, respectively. They talked about what lessons the first conflict may offer for the second, whether it is possible to revive the detente strategy of the 1970s, and how America can achieve victory.

Dmitri Alperovitch's book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" publishes on April 30th (https://WorldOntheBrink.com).

Sergey Radchenko's book "To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power" publishes on May 30th (https://www.amazon.com/Run-World-Kremlins-Global-Power/dp/1108477356/).

How the US Planned to Respond to Russia Using a Nuke in Ukraine

Mon, 08 Apr 2024 06:51:26 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in combating proliferation. They discussed the fears that the US intelligence community had in the fall of 2022 that the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine was estimated to be at 50/50 and how the US planned to respond to that outcome. Bill and Dmitri also debated the proposal to limit the power of the President to launch a first nuclear strike and discussed the destabilizing implication of the recent news that Russia may be seeking to put a nuclear weapon into space.

Please check out Dmitri's book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" which comes out on April 30th. https://worldonthebrink.com

The Trinity Revolution in Warfare: Precision, Sensors and Comms

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 19:26:34 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and digital communications like Starlink. They discuss the still crucial importance of infantry mass and artillery ammunition in this revolution, the challenge presented by electronic warfare and its logistical needs, whether unmanned systems are truly offering a radically new capability or are cheap replications of existing systems like torpedoes and cruise missiles, whether hypersonic missiles are worth the cost and the high manpower requirements of unmanned platforms and cyber weapons.

Please check out Dmitri's upcoming book : "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

Why North Korea is Probably Not Planning a War

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 22:40:48 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

They discuss whether the nearly $130 billion that the US is planning to spend to modernize its land-based nuclear arsenal is money well spent, whether the nuclear deterrent triad of land, submarine and bomber-based nuclear weapons still makes sense in this day and age, the cyber risk of the nuclear modernization program, why the US does not have any land-based mobile missile launchers, whether Chinese nuclear build up might actually perversely benefit the US, how Camp David Egypt-Israel Peace Accords caused more missile proliferation and whether we have a chance to slow down North Korean production of missiles it is supplying to Russia. Plus: Is nuclear nonproliferation dead? And much more!

Please check out Dmitri's upcoming book : "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

Why China Can’t Blockade Taiwan

Wed, 07 Feb 2024 22:49:32 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Ivan Kanapathy, a former US military attache to Taiwan, about the looming threat of Chinese invasion and why a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They discuss the implications of the recent Taiwan elections on the island's military readiness and the future of US-Taiwan relations, the challenges Taiwan faces in reforming its defense force and strategy, why an invasion of Taiwan would be one of the most difficult military operations ever conducted in the history of warfare, the evolving Taiwanese national identity and why the Taiwanese have little interest in unification with mainland China. Plus, why the world's dependence on Taiwan's semiconductors is unlikely to go away in the foreseeable future.

If you are interested in this topic, please preorder Dmitri's upcoming book that dives in great detail into these and many related issues: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2 Episode music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJFkCK_Ex2U

Battle of Wills: Ukraine’s Path to Victory

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 05:52:34 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Yaroslav Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent, about his new book "Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence." They discussed why the Russians lost any chance of capturing Kyiv in the first day of the war by failing to take Hostomel airport, why Ukrainian war preparations were quite uneven (stronger in the north than in the south), why the peace talks never had a chance, the strategic problem with the design of last year's counteroffensive and what the path to Ukrainian victory could look like.

Please check out Yaroslav's book: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/B0CFYPX267/

And Dmitri's upcoming book: "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century" https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2 Episode music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzsruxnYwRQ

The Drone Wars: How Consumer Tech Is Shaping the Ukraine War

Fri, 15 Dec 2023 07:10:33 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Rob Lee (Foreign Policy Research Institute) and Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) how the proliferation of FPV drones and countermeasures to them are changing the nature of warfare in Ukraine.

They discuss:

- Advantages and disadvantages of these new platforms

- The development of new tactics and force structures employing them

- The challenge Ukraine is having with developing and procuring munitions for drones

- The cat-and-mouse battle in electronic warfare countermeasures used by both sides

- Whether FPVs provide an advantage to defense or offense

- The implications of drones on counterbattery and naval warfare

- How Ukraine has emerged as a testing ground for these new technologies and the vital need for Western militaries to better absorb lessons learned from this conflict

- How drones are becoming the cheap 'generic', albeit lesser capable, alternatives to expensive 'brand-name' weapon systems such as missiles, torpedoes, ISR platforms, etc.

Andrey also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, UkraineDefenseFund.org, is helping train new Ukrainian FPV operators at the total cost of just $500 in 3 weeks.

All Things AI: An Interview With White House AI Guru Ben Buchanan

Fri, 08 Dec 2023 07:14:45 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch comes to the White House to interview Dr. Ben Buchanan, the White House Special Advisor on AI, about:

- The risks and benefits of AI

- What the US government is trying to achieve with the President's Executive Order on AI

- Why Terminator AIs are not coming to kill us but evil people using AI just might

- What the requirements to report to US government about the development of cutting-edge foundational models is all about

- How the US can maintain its lead in this technology

- White House's thinking on open source AI models

- US government's international AI strategy

- The plan for how to use AI inside US government

- The purpose and mission of the new AI Safety Review Board

- And why US government is concerned about China's use of AI

- And much more

Ben Buchanan's last book on AI (The New Fire: War, Peace, and Democracy in the Age of AI): https://www.amazon.com/New-Fire-War-Peace-Democracy/dp/0262046547

His previous book on cybersecurity (The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics): https://www.amazon.com/Hacker-State-Attacks-Normal-Geopolitics/dp/0674987551

Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

Why Chinese Economy Is Heading For Stagnation, Not Collapse

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 19:46:30 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch and guest co-host Patrick Gray interview Alicia García-Herrero, a Spanish-born economist based in the indo-Pacific and who specializes on China.

They discussed why China has exhausted its growth potential and is now facing structured deceleration, which will be a major global deflationary trend.

Other topics covered: why the real-estate bubble will likely not cause a dire crisis, why stimulus spending will not solve China's fundamental problems, why China has not yet experienced the full impact of its demographics collapse, why their economic productivity is not improving and the impact of their economy on the future of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

Why Quantum Computing May be Overhyped but AI isn’t: Interview with the NSA

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 05:06:46 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Gilbert Herrera, Director of Research at the National Security Agency (NSA) and a member of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee.

They discussed the current state of quantum computing, why its current applications outside of breaking certain types of public key cryptography are highly limited, why we may not see a useful quantum computer for many years and why AI will deliver faster and more revolutionary progress to our daily lives than quantum computers. They also dived into the present challenges of the AI technology and why we need to develop a theoretical basis for addressing errors and hallucinations in AI models.

If you are interested in understanding quantum computing, quantum sensing and quantum communication and the real-world applications of these technologies, this is the episode you do not want to miss!

Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

How Ukraine Can Benefit From ATACMS Missiles

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 03:08:32 +0000

ATACMS episode:

- What variants of the missile exist

- What unique advantages they offer over already provided Storm Shadows / SCALP-EGs from UK and France

- How many missiles may exist in the US inventory and why some can be provided to Ukraine without jeopardizing US military readiness

- Why the German Taurus missile is also a much needed munition for Ukraine

- The state of production of the next-generation Precision Strike Missile and its advantages over ATACMS

- How ATACMS usage in Ukraine might enhance deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Colby Badhwar, a Canadian security analyst, who has written an extensive X thread on ATACMS, to discuss these topics

Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

Colby's ATACMS thread: https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1703757651623162271

Starlink in Ukraine: Why the Story Is Not So Simple

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 01:29:53 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Patrick Gray, host of Risky Business podcast, about why the Starlink-Elon saga is much more complicated than it might seem at first glance. Blaming Elon for his Crimea action is probably unfair, but he does deserve both praise and criticism for his contributions to Ukrainian battlefield successes and challenges. And so does the Department of Defense for taking too long to come up with an appropriate solution, which they thankfully ultimately did

Preorder link for Dmitri's upcoming book "World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century": https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CF1TKHY2

Why 702 is America’s most valuable intelligence program: Interview with the FBI

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 15:24:59 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Bryan Vorndran, Assistant Director of FBI's Cyber Division, to discuss why FISA Section 702 is by far the most valuable intelligence program in the US government's arsenal and is responsible for the majority of the most valuable intelligence the country collects.

In this episode, Vorndran provides some examples of 702 successes including disrupting attempted assassination plots of American officials by a foreign country and identifying the perpetrator of the Colonial Pipeline hack and recovering the paid ransom. Vorndran also highlights compliance issues that the FBI has faced with the program and what it is doing to address them going forward.

What the Death of Prigozhin Means for Wagner, Russia and Ukraine

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 04:53:00 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Russian military analyst Rob Lee and Wagner Group expert Jack Margolin about the implications of reports of Prigozhin's fiery death in a plane crash in Russia.

Where does Wagner go from here?

What happens to Russian ambitions in Africa?

Does this event help restore Surovikin, Russia's most competent commander of this war, back to command one day?

And what impact this might have on the future of the war

Music: Richard Wagner's Funeral March

How Russian Intelligence operatives have attacked Ukraine in cyberspace: Interview with Ukrainian Security Service

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 00:47:48 +0000

In this joint Geopolitics Decanted and Risky Business feature interview, Dmitri Alperovitch and Patrick Gray talk to Illia Vitiuk, the Head of the Department of Cyber and Information Security of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) about the cyber dimension to Russia's invasion.

From turning off Ukraine's power grid with a cyber attack in 2015, to the Viasat satellite communications hack in 2022, Russia's intelligence services are world renowned for executing creative destructive cyber campaigns.

Despite this, after a year and a half of Russia waging war on Ukraine its power grid is up, its telcos are functioning and its banks are still processing transactions.

How has Ukraine been able to withstand Russia's onslaught in the cyber domain? Illia Vitiuk joins us to reveal insights into how Russian intelligence services are operating in Ukraine, and how the SBU is countering them.

Why Reports of the US Dollar’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Mon, 07 Aug 2023 06:38:41 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with geoeconomist Douglas Rediker (Senior Fellow at Brookings and formerly with the IMF Executive Board) about the enduring dominance of the U.S. dollar and why it won't change any time soon.

Why the dollar continues to have no realistic alternatives and why Chinese renminbi is not a viable replacement. Also, what are the prospects and obstacles for seizing Russia's Central Bank Reserves to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction and other budget needs. And is there anything that China can do to diminish the impact of any future U.S. sanctions if it choose to invade Taiwan?

Why Europe’s Dependence on the US Military Will Not Change

Tue, 01 Aug 2023 02:32:12 +0000

On the train ride to Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Franz Stefan Gady, one of the premier European military analysts, about why American military involvement in Europe is unlikely to be significantly reduced in the coming years and the dangers that a US conflict with China may present to European security.

They discuss the slow pace of European military modernization, Germany's hesitancy to embrace AI and autonomy and why US remains an indispensable political and military power in NATO when it comes providing security in Europe.

Music: Ode to Joy by Ludwig van Beethoven

How Drones Are Changing the Nature of Warfare in Ukraine

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 06:17:48 +0000

On the train ride back to Poland from Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (President of Ukraine Defense Fund, a charity that provides non-lethal aid to the Ukrainian military) about how various types of drones are used for artillery correction, target identification and strike missions in Ukraine.

They discuss why Chinese drones such as DJI Mavic and Matrice are superior to Western commercial alternatives, why Starlink is irreplaceable, why friendly fire is responsible for over half of commercial drone losses, and how electronic warfare is affecting drone navigation and communication and what countermeasures are being employed. Also, why developing jailbreaks for the latest DJI drone models is a critical need for the Ukrainian military.

Music: "I am Ukraine" by Nastia Kamenskikh (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofspgP0cKbE)

Trip Report: What I Learned in Kyiv and Conversation with Mike Kofman and Rob Lee about Counteroffensive and Wagner

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 13:11:39 +0000

Guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about his recent trip to Kyiv and what he learned from his meetings with senior military and intelligence leadership there.

Dmitri also interviews Mike Kofman and Rob Lee during their train ride to Kyiv about the current state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and their thinking on the fallout from the Wagner mutiny

Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saEpkcVi1d4

Mutiny in Russia: Who Won, Who Lost and What Caused It

Mon, 26 Jun 2023 05:10:08 +0000

In this edition of Geopolitics Decanted guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about Evgeny Prigozhin's so-called "March for Justice". What was it all about? Did it fail or succeed? What does Putin's reaction tell us about what will happen next in Russia?

Music: Battle Hymn of PMC Wagner (https://rutube.ru/video/3152ef2154f8d3bd9aa0aeb82fa3d77d/)

Ukraine’s Offensive Has Begun: Analysis With Michael Kofman and Rob Lee

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 06:07:39 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee about this week's launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive: what are its objectives, how can we determine when it's successful, and what is likely to come next. Also covered: Why Kakhovka dam destruction is unlikely to have an impact on the counteroffensive, Prigozhin's trap for Russian Military leadership in Bakhmut, implications of attacks on Russian border regions in Belgorod, impact of Storm Shadow long range missiles and why Russia continues to avoid sending conscripts into the war.

Music: "Song about Berdyansk" by Oleg Kenzov (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgZXdROLaHg)

How AI Will Transform Future Militaries (And Societies)

Tue, 02 May 2023 05:43:34 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the evolution of AI with Teddy Collins (former Assistant Director for Technology Strategy at the White House, Research Scientist at Google’s DeepMind and co-author of "Teams of Teams" with General Stan McChrystal):

- The AI triad of Talent/Algorithms, Data and Compute which has driven so much improvement in the last 5 years

- How AI could disproportionally benefit the large and rich technology platform companies

- The challenge of Sim2Real jump and why using AI to solve many real-world problems in the physical world could still be years away

- Why AI is unlikely to give an edge to attackers or defenders in cybersecurity

- The dark side of AI

- And what might be the most profound implications for societal change driven by AI

How China Plans to Win the Chip War

Tue, 25 Apr 2023 01:13:10 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Chris Miller, author of the recent New York Times bestseller Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, about one of the central elements of the US-China confrontation: semiconductors. Topics discussed include:
- Which chips are more critical: advanced or foundational (aka mature)
- The history of how Taiwan's TSMC had become the world's #1 chipmaker and China's attempts to follow in their footsteps
- The effect of US export controls on China's semiconductor industry and China's retaliatory options
- Why Taiwan chose to undermine its own Silicon Shield strategy
- Whether the US is likely to attempt to destroy Taiwan's fabs if China succeeds in conquering the island
- Whether the US chips fabs can be price-competitive with Asian manufacturers?
- Why Korea will likely not become the new Taiwan as a world leader in semiconductor manufacturing
- And much more

Music: "Trade War" by Zhao Liangtian (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3012160/man-behind-viral-chinese-hit-trade-war-turns-volume-singing)

How Ukraine Can Survive the Exhaustion of Its Air Defense Stocks

Mon, 17 Apr 2023 04:30:42 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk (Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and Professor at Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy) and Dara Massicot (Russian military analyst at RAND) about the dire implications of the dwindling stocks of Ukrainian air defense interceptors and what can be done to solve that problem.
Justin makes a strong case for how only a dozen or so Swedish Saab Gripen jets could make a huge difference for Ukrainian objective to make Russian air power irrelevant in this war and Dara proposes an asymmetric response to deny Russian military launch platforms from which they could strike Ukraine.
Also, in the podcast:
- Why F-16s are a terrible fit for Ukrainian airfields and the dilemma the US would face in providing the newest AMRAAM missiles for them (that Ukraine would need) without jeopardizing US air superiority in the potential conflict with China
- How the Russian Air Force is likely to carpet-bomb Ukrainian cities, provide increased close air support to its ground forces and target Ukrainian logistics/ammo depots/force concentrations and HIMARS launchers if they achieve air superiority over the skies in Ukraine
- The challenges with producing Soviet air defense interceptor missiles outside of Russia
- Why Western air defense systems (Patriots, NASAMS, IRIS-T, etc) are not a replacement for the large quantities of Ukrainian S-300s and Buks
- How countermeasures on Russian fighter jets have actually been effective in limiting their combat losses against MANPADS like Stingers
- Why Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are considered the most professional and most responsive to learning units in the Russian military
- The success of Ukrainian counter-UAV battle against Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones and how a phone app is making a key difference for Ukraine in that fight

Music: "Flygkadetten Marsch" (The Aviation Cadet March) of the Swedish Air Force

China and Russia: An Alliance, an Alignment or a Marriage of Convenience?

Fri, 07 Apr 2023 07:23:07 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Alexander Gabuev (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and Sergey Radchenko (Johns Hopkins SAIS), two of the foremost experts on the true nature of the China-Russia relationship. Topics discussed:
- The signs that the Xi-Putin summit in Moscow last month may have achieved more substance than many may realize
- How China may covertly help Russia in procurement of weapons and munitions
- Why China may not be interested in a near-term resolution to the war
- Whether China is able to restrain Moscow's use of nuclear blackmail
- The Scramble for Central Asia
- Renminbi's growing power in the Russian economy
- And whether Russian elites will opt for Chinese boarding schools over UK ones to educate their offsprings

Music: Moscow-Peking (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtvEhrwFzok)

Why Taiwan’s Military Modernization Is Moving Too Slowly

Tue, 21 Mar 2023 01:15:45 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vincent Chao, a Taiwanese politician and former diplomat and national security strategist, about why Taiwan is moving so slowly to modernize its military and increase deterrence of an existential threat of Chinese invasion.

They discuss Taiwan's messy identity politics, whether Taiwanese will fight to defend their freedoms, Chinese misinformation efforts to drive wedges in Taiwan's political system and alliances, whether Silicon Shield can protect Taiwan and why a Chinese blockade is not the major threat to the island.

Myth Busting With Michael Kofman: Debunking Common Misperceptions About the Ukraine War

Fri, 10 Mar 2023 04:17:49 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down once again with Michael Kofman, Russian military analyst, who has just returned from visiting the frontline in Bakhmut, to talk about his observations on the fighting there, as well as common misperceptions about Wagner Group, impact of Western training programs on Ukrainian military force composition, the adaptations and learnings of both militaries so far in this war and the outlook for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

Music: Bakhmut Fortress by Ukrainian rock group Antytila

How Russia’s Winter Offensive Could Backfire

Tue, 21 Feb 2023 02:52:08 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Michael Kofman to discuss the strategic mistakes of Russia's current offensive in the Donbas and the prospects of an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

We also dive into the implications of the remarkable Prigozhin vs Shoigu gangland-style fight ('razborki' in Russian) and how Russian incompetence may have been the best Ukrainian asset in this war. Mike predicts another Russian mobilization wave may come later this year. And for the one year anniversary of the war, we discuss what we have gotten wrong thus far and why.

Music: Ukrainian Fury (Ukrainian adaptation of Bella Ciao) by Khrystyna Soloviy

Interview: This American Spent 10 Months Fighting in Ukraine

Sun, 12 Feb 2023 23:39:58 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to David Bramlette, a former U.S. Ranger and Green Beret combat veteran, who has recently returned from fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. David shares his experiences of the war, why he went over to risk his life for a foreign country, his impressions of the Russian and Ukrainian forces, and what happens when Americans get wounded in Ukraine.

How Russia is Working Around Western Sanctions and Export Controls

Mon, 23 Jan 2023 05:10:49 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Silverado's own experts - Sarah Stewart (CEO) and Andy David (Senior Director of Research and Analysis) about Silverado's new just published research report that dives deep into the analysis of Russian import trade flows to figure out how Russia is working around the export controls and sanctions it has been put under since the invasion of Ukraine. The report finds that Russia benefited from high inventory levels prior to the war and is now benefiting from China and many former Soviet republic countries transhipping goods into Russia. We also discussed our recommendations for US policy makers on how to tighten up the sanctions and export control regime to make it more effective.

"Russia Shifting Import Sources Amid U.S. and Allied Export Restrictions" report download link: https://silverado.org/news/report-russia-shifting-import-sources-amid-u-s-and-allied-export-restrictions

Why Ukraine May Try to Retake Crimea Next

Fri, 13 Jan 2023 03:57:42 +0000

Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has taken back all of the territory lost since February 2022.
In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch once again talks to Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, who challenges that notion. Sergii makes a compelling case that Ukraine is likely to try to retake Crimea as part of an upcoming new offensive.

Other topics covered in an in-depth conversation about the state of the war:
- Why Ukraine is fighting so hard for Bakhmut despite taking devastating losses there
- Why Kreminna and Svatove are even more important than Bakhmut
- The vital importance of the barely noticed fight at Vulhledar in the South
- Is it possible for Ukrainian forces to cross the Dnipro river
- Why the latest supplies of western Infantry Fighting Vehicles and tanks may not help as much as many think
- How Ukraine is maintaining the Noah's Ark of western weapons donations
- Why Ukraine has not attempted to destroy the North Crimean Canal and the real situation with the water supplies to Crimea
- Why there is only one real general in the Russian military
- Where is Ukraine expecting a new Russian offensive
- Why the stories of Russian forces being unmotivated to fight is largely a myth
- Why Kharkiv remains a key priority for Russia
- Why Ukraine is not worried about a new offensive from Belarus
- and much more

Music: "There beyond the fogs" Ukrainian take on a popular patriotic song from a Russian rock band Lyube, rewritten with lyrics about the explosions in Crimea (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DSAnQrTELQ)

How Dwindling Ammunition Stocks Could Decide the Outcome of the War

Fri, 23 Dec 2022 03:52:30 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian military expert Michael Kofman about: - Why this war may be decided by which side can stretch their ammunition supplies the longest

- Putin's visit to Belarus and whether a new Russian offensive may be coming soon

- 3 areas in which Russian military has been outclassed by Ukrainian forces

- How Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) has performed in this conflict

- Whether Surovikin is the best military commander Russia has had thus far in this war

- What impact the delivery of Patriots batteries might have on Ukrainian air defense

- The importance of the partisan warfare Ukrainians are conducting against Russian logistics in the south

New Phase of the War: Ukraine Faces Tough Decisions

Mon, 12 Dec 2022 13:15:03 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman

- The strategic impact of Russian terror strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure

- Likelihood of a near-term Ukrainian offensive to retake the South

- Is Ukraine trying to retake Kinburn Spit to control the Dniepier river?

- Would tanks help Ukraine break through the Russian trenches in the Donbas?

- Will we see significant offensive action this winter?

- Why the war will not stop at February 24 lines

No Way Out: Why Negotiations Won’t End the War Soon

Fri, 02 Dec 2022 15:19:24 +0000

In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with historian and Russia expert Mark Galeotti about:

- Whether Putin is capable of compromising his war aims in any potential future negotiations with Ukraine

- The real reason for why he chose to invade Ukraine

- Why he went ahead and annexed territories he didn't even have full control over

- The similarities between Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022

- Why Prigozhin and Kadyrov are no threat to Putin's hold on power

- Whether the sanctions and export controls are having much of an effect on the Russian economy and society

- How the people in Russia's intelligence services are reacting to the war (and what happened to SVR's Naryshkin)

- Why Putin is incapable of holding incompetent leaders accountable

- Why the bombastic rhetoric from Russian nationalist shock jocks on state television is not a portal into Kremlin's policy

- And much more!

Russia’s Cyber Game: What Worked and What Didn’t

Fri, 25 Nov 2022 20:11:36 +0000

In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Danny Moore, a scholar of offensive cyber operations and a former cyber operator in the Israeli Defense Forces, about the successes and failures of Russian cyber attacks against Ukraine, the reasons for the lack of Russian cyber retaliation against the West, how the cyber component of warfare might play out different in a potential conflict with China over Taiwan, and the disturbing vulnerabilities of US weapons platforms like the F35 to cyber attacks

How the Russian Air Force Failed in Ukraine

Thu, 17 Nov 2022 21:22:39 +0000

Why has Russia been unable to suppress Ukrainian air defenses? What is the true state of its missile stockpiles and production rates? Is the F-16 the best aircraft to provide to Ukraine to replace its old Soviet fighter jets? How can the West disrupt the chips supplies for the Russian military?

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Justin Brock and Dr. Jack Watling from Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) about their findings from the recent trip to Ukraine

Keys Lessons for Taiwan from the War in Ukraine

Sat, 12 Nov 2022 19:15:08 +0000

What lessons should Taiwan and its allies draw from the current conflict in Ukraine? Is the tank obsolete? Are commercial drones the future of warfare?

Dmitri Alperovitch speaks to Franz-Stefan Gady, a research fellow at IISS and a deep thinker on the future of conflict and war, about his recent trip to Ukraine and the non-obvious lessons for Taiwan from this conflict

How Putin’s Reign Could End

Wed, 09 Nov 2022 00:51:15 +0000

Military coup or orderly transition? Nothing lasts forever and in this edition of the podcast, Dmitri Alperovitch speaks to Daniel Treisman, professor of political science at University of California, who specializes on Russian politics and economics, about how Putin's multi-decade reign of Russia might end

Scenarios for How This War Might End

Tue, 01 Nov 2022 02:18:23 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman, who is just back from a trip to Ukraine.

They discuss:

- The latest on the fight in Kherson and Luhansk

- Impact of Russian terror strikes on civilian infrastructure

- Ukrainian morale

- How Putin's mobilization is progressing

- What the Russians are trying to achieve with the dirty bomb scares, - Lkelihood of use of nuclear weapons and

- How this war might end

How America Pulled the Plug on China’s Chips Sector

Sat, 15 Oct 2022 18:40:11 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado's Executive Director Sarah Stewart talk to Kevin Wolf, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, about the latest export control measures announced by the Biden Administration that are now crippling the Chinese semiconductor companies and why this is one of the most important actions the US could have taken to deter an invasion of Taiwan

What the Kerch Bridge Attack Means for the War

Sat, 08 Oct 2022 23:45:02 +0000

In the latest episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman about the Kerch bridge attack, as well as:

- Prospect of nuclear weapons use by Putin

- Analysis of how Russia's mobilization drive has gone thus far

- Kherson and Donbas counteroffensives by Ukrainian forces

- Why the Russians continue their pointless attacks in Donetsk oblasts

- Ongoing game of musical chairs taking place at the highest levels of Russian military hierarchy

- And the strange things happening with Starlink in Ukraine

- Where the war is heading in 2023

Betting It All on Black: Putin’s Partial Mobilization

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:49:48 +0000

Twitter Space recording from September 21, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch , Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on the implications of Putin's partial mobilization order and the impact it may have on the outcome of the war, as well as Putin's own political futures

Like Ants to Wet Sugar: How Ukraine Won The Battle of Kharkiv

Sun, 11 Sep 2022 23:53:54 +0000

How did the Russian northern front collapse so rapidly and what can be expected now in the fight for Donbas and Kherson?

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the latest Ukraine counteroffensive developments with Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military.

Russian northern front collapse: Latest on Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Sun, 11 Sep 2022 01:35:06 +0000

Twitter Space recording from September 10, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch and Michael Kofman on the implications of the rapid collapse of the Russian forces pocket in northern Ukraine and what the future holds for Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and south

Why the global food shortage is a myth

Wed, 31 Aug 2022 07:29:57 +0000

Was there ever a grain shortage crisis caused by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports?

Dmitri Alperovitch gets the real story from Dr. Scott Irwin, Professor of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois and an international leader in the field of agricultural economics. Dr. Irwin discusses the true state of grain markets and the causes behind the recent increase in food prices and what can be done about it.

Topics covered:

How likely is the current grain crisis to lead to famine?
What is the impact of resumption of Ukraine's grain exports after a deal brokered by Turkey?
Why were wheat prices increasing even before the Russian invasion?
Ukraine's wheat is a tiny fraction of global production. Why is it having such outsize effects on price?
Can substitute crops make up for missing wheat?
What will be the impact of fertilizer shortage on food markets?
What can governments do to alleviate future food crises?

Episode produced by Patrick Gray (risky.biz)

Ukraine’s cheap drones wreak havoc in Crimea

Mon, 22 Aug 2022 00:53:26 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

Topics covered:

$10,000 Chinese UAVs are Ukraine's new asymmetric weapon in the war of attrition in Ukraine
Russia's plan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
Ukrainian planned counteroffensives and the state of Russian progress in the Donbas
Why is Moscow changing commanders in this war every few months?
Effects of Russian shadow mobilization campaign on current war and long-term force structure
Russian artillery ammo stocks
Russian attempts to rebuild Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) inventory

Slicing the Sausage: Ukraine’s Upcoming Counteroffensive

Wed, 03 Aug 2022 13:43:09 +0000

In this podcast Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, about Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive.
Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis, also joins the show to share his latest analysis of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.

Topics covered:

Ukraine's weapons needs for a successful counteroffensive and the challenges they will face
Strategic objective of the counteroffensive and how can it help turn the tide of the war
Why now is the window of opportunity for a counteroffensive and why it may be narrowing
How Ukraine preserved their best troops despite high combat losses
The strategic importance of partisan movement in the south and its command and control by Ukrainian special forces
The story of how Russians captured Luhansk oblast by shelling their own forces
How maneuver defense stopped the Russian offensive in the Donbas
How the Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces and the importance of NATO training
The lessons the Russians have learned since their earlier failures and their plan in the third phase of the war
Why long range missiles are not currently a priority for Ukraine
Morale impact of Russian apparent torture and execution of POWs

How Russia Engineered the Perfect Gas Crisis

Fri, 29 Jul 2022 01:02:54 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world.

Topics covered:

When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe?
What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected?
What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1 flows?
Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying?
How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers?
Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms?
What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies?
How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India?

Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0

Why Giving Ukraine F-16s Makes Sense

Mon, 18 Jul 2022 01:15:11 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s.

Topics covered:

Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today
How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russian retaliation
How Ukraine pilots can be trained within weeks on the basic missions most needed for current phase of the war
How to quickly train and assist remotely the ground crews that will maintain the fleet
How Ukraine can be helped in repair and replacement of parts for the planes
What munitions can be provided for the missions to be undertaken
What options exist for helicopter aid

Ukraine’s HIMARS edge may not last: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (July 10, 2022)

Mon, 11 Jul 2022 03:46:08 +0000

July 10, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.
Topics covered:

HIMARS: Are they making a strategic difference or will Russia find a way to blunt their effects?
Can ATACMS 300km range missiles break the Russian Black Sea Blockade?
Why was Russia so obsessed with trying (unsuccessfully) to hold Snake Island?
Is Russia executing a real operational pause before another assault on Donetsk oblast in Donbas?
How long will it take for Russia to rebuild its combat losses?
Are prisoners with military experience the future of the Russian military?
What's happening with the Russian Kharkiv offensive?
Has Ukraine launched the Kherson offensive or are we still seeing just preparations for one?
How much is the war really costing Russia?

How Putin is dragging Belarus into the war: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 26, 2022)

Mon, 27 Jun 2022 02:12:56 +0000

June 26, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Henry Schlottman (OSINT war analyst, US army veteran) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

Is Belarus getting dragged into this war?
Who is running Russia's war? Why are commanders being replaced?
How best can Ukraine use the new HIMARS artillery systems that are now arriving? What difference are they likely to make on the battlefield?
Is Russia in danger of running out of ammunition?
Is Russian advance stalling in the Donbas?
Can Ukraine target the Crimean Bridge bridge and what are the implications of their strikes on energy and rail infrastructure in Russia and Crimea?
Is Russia still having logistics issues in the Donbas offensive?
How is Wagner performing in the fight and why did Prigozhin get a Hero of Russia medal?
Can Western defense industrial base keep up with Ukrainian ammo and weaponry needs and expenditures?

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael, @HN_Schlottman

The War of Attrition: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 19, 2022)

Mon, 20 Jun 2022 01:33:56 +0000

June 19, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

- Near-term prospects for Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south to take back Kherson

- Will the new Western artillery systems arrive in time to make a difference for the current fight in Donbas

- Why is maintenance the biggest issue for Ukrainian deliveries of new Western weapons

- How fast can the Ukrainian ports be demined to allow for sea export of grain and oilseeds

- Why haven't we heard more about the impact of Switchblade kamikaze drones that everyone was so excited about just weeks ago

- What is the state of exhaustion/force rotations on Russian and Ukrainian sides

- What's happening on Snake Island right now

- Does Russia have the troops to make trouble for Moldova or Ukraine from Transnistria

- Is Russia running out of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and artillery shells

- Is a ceasefire likely in the near future

- What are the lessons learned from this war for the US military

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

The Long War: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 5, 2022)

Mon, 06 Jun 2022 02:16:32 +0000

June 5, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Topics covered:
- Latest on the war in the Donbas, Russian progress and Ukrainian counteroffensives
- Will the Western military aid (howitzers, MLRS/HIMARS, armor, UAVs...) be enough to help Ukraine in this stage of the fight?
- Why is the rate of Russian casualties appearing to decrease from earlier in the war?
- Can current high rate of Ukrainian casualties be sustained?
- Are the Russians performing better at close-air support and electronic warfare than they had been earlier?
- Putin's war on global food supplies
- Can the Ukrainian ports be safely demined now?
- How long can this phase of the war continue?
- Russia: Bad military or bad plan?
- Russian force design: why they weren't prepared for this fight
- Shadow mobilization options for Russia

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Recent article by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussed on the podcast: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

Inside the West’s Economic War Against Russia: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 27, 2022)

Fri, 27 May 2022 20:46:53 +0000

May 27, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Maria Shagina (Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies) about the economic war the West is waging against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

In-depth analysis of the state of current sanctions, their impact on Russia now and in the medium to long term, what more can be done to ratchet up the pressure, the role that China is playing in the current economic confrontation and whether sanctions will have the desired effect in the end.

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @Maria_Shagina

How effective is the Russian military: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 15, 2022)

Sun, 15 May 2022 22:33:52 +0000

May 15, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Dara Massicot (Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation and formerly an analyst on Russian military capabilities at the US Department of Defense) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

In-depth analysis of why the Russian military has performed so poorly at each stage of the conflict, botched river crossings in Donbas, possibility of annexation of Kherson and other parts of occupied Ukrainian territories and implications of such action on the possible employment of nuclear weapons in this conflict.

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch , @KofmanMichael and @MassDara

How Moskva Was Sunk: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 8, 2022)

Mon, 09 May 2022 12:47:57 +0000

May 8, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and US Navy Capt. Chris Carlson (Ret.) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Discussion of how the cruiser Moskva may have been sunk, the implications for Black Sea fleet, the importance of Snake Island, update on Donbas offensive and how a Russian mobilization may unfold.

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Ukrainian Military: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 1, 2022)

Sun, 01 May 2022 22:06:02 +0000

May 1, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Nolan Peterson (Ukraine-based Senior Editor of Coffee or Die Magazine) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Discussion of the state of the Ukrainian military and whether the western weapons aid is getting to the front lines, economic conditions in Ukraine, fight for the Donbas, Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov's apparent visit to the front-lines in Izyum and how this has become a war of artillery.

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @nolanwpeterson

Fight for Donbas: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (April 24, 2022)

Mon, 25 Apr 2022 21:51:27 +0000

April 24, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Discussion of the fight for Donbas, how Russia is doing now on logistics and tactics, the sinking of Moskva, Russia's blockade in the Black Sea and the strangling of the Ukrainian economic and the outlook on the how the war might end

ollow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Nuclear Weapons: Iran, North Korea and Have We Lost the Nonproliferation Fight?

Sun, 10 Apr 2022 17:25:17 +0000

Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) talks about nuclear nonproliferation with Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk), Director of East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies at Monterey.
Topics discussed include:
- What is the latest status of the Iran nuclear deal negotiations?
- What are the key objections to JCPOA?
- What does Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei truly want?
- Why has Iran already beaten all world records at the longest time to acquiring a nuclear bomb?
- How significant is the benefit of a nuclear weapons program to countries like Iran and North Korea?
- Did we forever miss the opportunity to contain nuclear proliferation in the 70s-90s with a lax enforcement regime?
- 16 years after North Korea first tested a nuclear device, is it time to acknowledge that North Korea is not going to give up its weapons and refocus our diplomatic strategy with them on more achievable objectives?
- And much more...

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @ArmsControlWonk

Science of War: Analysis of the war in Ukraine and implications for Taiwan (April 3, 2022)

Mon, 04 Apr 2022 01:53:24 +0000

April 3, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces and implications of the conflict for Taiwan and its defense with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Ivan Kanapathy (former Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia on the National Security Council and US military attache in Taiwan, now Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies).

Topics: Russian withdrawal from the northwest, is threat to Kyiv/Odessa/Kharkiv over, what's next in the Donbas, what is the endgame in the south, how real is the threat to Finland and Sweden if they move forward with NATO accession, what lessons can Taiwan learn from Ukraine, how capable is China at amphibious landings and suppression of air defenses, and much more!

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Endgame in Sight: Analysis of the the war in Ukraine (March 27, 2022)

Mon, 28 Mar 2022 02:07:30 +0000

March 27, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Discussion of potential cyber attacks on US and allies with Chris Krebs (former director of CISA, co-founder of Krebs Stamos Group) and analysis of Russia's announced endgame for the war with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis)

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @C_C_Krebs

Stalemate: Analysis of the the war in Ukraine (March 20, 2022)

Mon, 21 Mar 2022 18:04:17 +0000

March 20, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Update on the campaign, challenges the Russians are facing, prospect for a coup in Russia and much more with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Andrew Monaghan (Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute)

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

War for Cities: Military analysis of the the war in Ukraine (March 13, 2022)

Mon, 14 Mar 2022 02:38:13 +0000

March 13, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks about the new developments the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Update on the campaign, Russian training deficiencies, prospect of nuclear escalation and much more with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute)

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Military analysis of the the war in Ukraine: March 6, 2022

Fri, 11 Mar 2022 22:26:41 +0000

March 6, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces: the state of the campaign, Russian plans and failures, Ukrainian defenses and much more with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute)

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85