Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

In the latest episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman about the Kerch bridge attack, as well as:

- Prospect of nuclear weapons use by Putin

- Analysis of how Russia's mobilization drive has gone thus far

- Kherson and Donbas counteroffensives by Ukrainian forces

- Why the Russians continue their pointless attacks in Donetsk oblasts

- Ongoing game of musical chairs taking place at the highest levels of Russian military hierarchy

- And the strange things happening with Starlink in Ukraine

- Where the war is heading in 2023

Twitter Space recording from September 21, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch , Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on the implications of Putin's partial mobilization order and the impact it may have on the outcome of the war, as well as Putin's own political futures

How did the Russian northern front collapse so rapidly and what can be expected now in the fight for Donbas and Kherson?

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the latest Ukraine counteroffensive developments with Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military.

Twitter Space recording from September 10, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch and Michael Kofman on the implications of the rapid collapse of the Russian forces pocket in northern Ukraine and what the future holds for Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and south

Was there ever a grain shortage crisis caused by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports?

Dmitri Alperovitch gets the real story from Dr. Scott Irwin, Professor of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois and an international leader in the field of agricultural economics. Dr. Irwin discusses the true state of grain markets and the causes behind the recent increase in food prices and what can be done about it.

Topics covered:

• How likely is the current grain crisis to lead to famine?
• What is the impact of resumption of Ukraine's grain exports after a deal brokered by Turkey?
• Why were wheat prices increasing even before the Russian invasion?
• Ukraine's wheat is a tiny fraction of global production. Why is it having such outsize effects on price?
• Can substitute crops make up for missing wheat?
• What will be the impact of fertilizer shortage on food markets?
• What can governments do to alleviate future food crises?

Episode produced by Patrick Gray (risky.biz)

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

Topics covered:

• $10,000 Chinese UAVs are Ukraine's new asymmetric weapon in the war of attrition in Ukraine
• Russia's plan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
• Ukrainian planned counteroffensives and the state of Russian progress in the Donbas
• Why is Moscow changing commanders in this war every few months?
• Effects of Russian shadow mobilization campaign on current war and long-term force structure
• Russian artillery ammo stocks
• Russian attempts to rebuild Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) inventory

In this podcast Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, about Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive.
Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis, also joins the show to share his latest analysis of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.

Topics covered:

• Ukraine's weapons needs for a successful counteroffensive and the challenges they will face
• Strategic objective of the counteroffensive and how can it help turn the tide of the war
• Why now is the window of opportunity for a counteroffensive and why it may be narrowing
• How Ukraine preserved their best troops despite high combat losses
• The strategic importance of partisan movement in the south and its command and control by Ukrainian special forces
• The story of how Russians captured Luhansk oblast by shelling their own forces
• How maneuver defense stopped the Russian offensive in the Donbas
• How the Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces and the importance of NATO training
• The lessons the Russians have learned since their earlier failures and their plan in the third phase of the war
• Why long range missiles are not currently a priority for Ukraine
• Morale impact of Russian apparent torture and execution of POWs

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with  energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world.

Topics covered:

• When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe?
• What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected?
• What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1  flows?
• Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria  cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying?
• How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers?
• Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms?
• What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies?
• How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India?

Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0