Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with  energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world.

Topics covered:

• When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe?
• What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected?
• What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1  flows?
• Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria  cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying?
• How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers?
• Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms?
• What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies?
• How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India?

Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s.

Topics covered:

• Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today
• How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russian retaliation
• How Ukraine pilots can be trained within weeks on the basic missions most needed for current phase of the war
• How to quickly train and assist remotely the ground crews that will maintain the fleet
• How Ukraine can be helped in repair and replacement of parts for the planes
• What munitions can be provided for the missions to be undertaken
• What options exist for helicopter aid

July 10, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.
Topics covered:

• HIMARS: Are they making a strategic difference or will Russia find a way to blunt their effects?
• Can ATACMS 300km range missiles break the Russian Black Sea Blockade?
• Why was Russia so obsessed with trying (unsuccessfully) to hold Snake Island?
• Is Russia executing a real operational pause before another assault on Donetsk oblast in Donbas?
• How long will it take for Russia to rebuild its combat losses?
• Are prisoners with military experience the future of the Russian military?
• What's happening with the Russian Kharkiv offensive?
• Has Ukraine launched the Kherson offensive or are we still seeing just preparations for one?
• How much is the war really costing Russia?

June 26, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Henry Schlottman (OSINT war analyst, US army veteran) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

• Is Belarus getting dragged into this war?
• Who is running Russia's war? Why are commanders being replaced?
• How best can Ukraine use the new HIMARS artillery systems that are now arriving? What difference are they likely to make on the battlefield?
• Is Russia in danger of running out of ammunition?
• Is Russian advance stalling in the Donbas?
• Can Ukraine target the Crimean Bridge bridge and what are the implications of their strikes on energy and rail infrastructure in Russia and Crimea?
• Is Russia still having logistics issues in the Donbas offensive?
• How is Wagner performing in the fight and why did Prigozhin get a Hero of Russia medal?
• Can Western defense industrial base keep up with Ukrainian ammo and weaponry needs and expenditures?

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael, @HN_Schlottman

June 19, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

- Near-term prospects for Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south to take back Kherson

- Will the new Western artillery systems arrive in time to make a difference for the current fight in Donbas

- Why is maintenance the biggest issue for Ukrainian deliveries of new Western weapons

- How fast can the Ukrainian ports be demined to allow for sea export of grain and oilseeds

- Why haven't we heard more about the impact of Switchblade kamikaze drones that everyone was so excited about just weeks ago

- What is the state of exhaustion/force rotations on Russian and Ukrainian sides

- What's happening on Snake Island right now

- Does Russia have the troops to make trouble for Moldova or Ukraine from Transnistria

- Is Russia running out of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and artillery shells

- Is a ceasefire likely in the near future

- What are the lessons learned from this war for the US military

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

June 5, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Rob Lee (Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

Topics covered:
- Latest on the war in the Donbas, Russian progress and Ukrainian counteroffensives
- Will the Western military aid (howitzers, MLRS/HIMARS, armor, UAVs...) be enough to help Ukraine in this stage of the fight?
- Why is the rate of Russian casualties appearing to decrease from earlier in the war?
- Can current high rate of Ukrainian casualties be sustained?
- Are the Russians performing better at close-air support and electronic warfare than they had been earlier?
- Putin's war on global food supplies
- Can the Ukrainian ports be safely demined now?
- How long can this phase of the war continue?
- Russia: Bad military or bad plan?
- Russian force design: why they weren't prepared for this fight
- Shadow mobilization options for Russia

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Recent article by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussed on the podcast:  https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

May 27, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Maria Shagina (Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies) about the economic war the West is waging against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.  

In-depth analysis of the state of current sanctions, their impact on Russia now and in the medium to long term, what more can be done to ratchet up the pressure, the role that China is playing in the current economic confrontation and whether sanctions will have the desired effect in the end.

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @Maria_Shagina

May 15, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Dara Massicot (Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation and formerly an analyst on Russian military capabilities at the US Department of Defense) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.

In-depth analysis of why the Russian military has performed so poorly at each stage of the conflict, botched river crossings in Donbas, possibility of annexation of Kherson and other parts of occupied Ukrainian territories and implications of such action on the possible employment of nuclear weapons in this conflict.

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch , @KofmanMichael and @MassDara