Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch

In this edition of Geopolitics Decanted guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about Evgeny Prigozhin's so-called "March for Justice". What was it all about? Did it fail or succeed? What does Putin's reaction tell us about what will happen next in Russia?

Music: Battle Hymn of PMC Wagner (https://rutube.ru/video/3152ef2154f8d3bd9aa0aeb82fa3d77d/)

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee about this week's launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive: what are its objectives, how can we determine when it's successful, and what is likely to come next. Also covered: Why Kakhovka dam destruction is unlikely to have an impact on the counteroffensive, Prigozhin's trap for Russian Military leadership in Bakhmut, implications of attacks on Russian border regions in Belgorod, impact of Storm Shadow long range missiles and why Russia continues to avoid sending conscripts into the war. 

Music: "Song about Berdyansk" by Oleg Kenzov (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgZXdROLaHg)

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the evolution of AI with Teddy Collins (former Assistant Director for Technology Strategy at the White House, Research Scientist at Google’s DeepMind and co-author of "Teams of Teams" with General Stan McChrystal):

- The AI triad of Talent/Algorithms, Data and Compute which has driven so much improvement in the last 5 years

- How AI could disproportionally benefit the large and rich technology platform companies

- The challenge of Sim2Real jump and why using AI to solve many real-world problems in the physical world could still be years away

- Why AI is unlikely to give an edge to attackers or defenders in cybersecurity

- The dark side of AI

- And what might be the most profound implications for societal change driven by AI

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Chris Miller, author of the recent New York Times bestseller Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, about one of the central elements of the US-China confrontation: semiconductors. Topics discussed include:
- Which chips are more critical: advanced or foundational (aka mature)
- The history of how Taiwan's TSMC had become the world's #1 chipmaker and China's attempts to follow in their footsteps
- The effect of US export controls on China's semiconductor industry and China's retaliatory options
- Why Taiwan chose to undermine its own Silicon Shield strategy
- Whether the US is likely to attempt to destroy Taiwan's fabs if China succeeds in conquering the island
- Whether the US chips fabs can be price-competitive with Asian manufacturers?
- Why Korea will likely not become the new Taiwan as a world leader in semiconductor manufacturing
- And much more

Music: "Trade War" by Zhao Liangtian (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3012160/man-behind-viral-chinese-hit-trade-war-turns-volume-singing)

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk (Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at  RUSI and Professor at Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy) and Dara Massicot (Russian military analyst at RAND) about the dire implications of the dwindling stocks of Ukrainian air defense interceptors and what can be done to solve that problem. 
Justin makes a strong case for how only a dozen or so Swedish Saab Gripen jets could make a huge difference for Ukrainian objective to make Russian air power irrelevant in this war and Dara proposes an asymmetric response to deny Russian military launch platforms from which they could strike Ukraine. 
Also, in the podcast:
- Why F-16s are a terrible fit for Ukrainian airfields and the dilemma the US would face in providing the newest AMRAAM missiles for them (that Ukraine would need) without jeopardizing US air superiority in the potential conflict with China
- How the Russian Air Force is likely to carpet-bomb Ukrainian cities, provide increased close air support to its ground forces and target Ukrainian logistics/ammo depots/force concentrations and HIMARS launchers if they achieve air superiority over the skies in Ukraine
- The challenges with producing Soviet air defense interceptor missiles outside of Russia
- Why Western air defense systems (Patriots, NASAMS, IRIS-T, etc) are not a replacement for the large quantities of Ukrainian S-300s and Buks
- How countermeasures on Russian fighter jets have actually been effective in limiting their combat losses against MANPADS like Stingers
- Why Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are considered the most professional and most responsive to learning units in the Russian military
- The success of Ukrainian counter-UAV battle against Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones and how a phone app is making a key difference for Ukraine in that fight

Music: "Flygkadetten Marsch"  (The Aviation Cadet March) of the Swedish Air Force

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Alexander Gabuev (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and Sergey Radchenko (Johns Hopkins SAIS), two of the foremost experts on the true nature of the China-Russia relationship. Topics discussed:
- The signs that the Xi-Putin summit in Moscow last month may have achieved more substance  than many may realize
- How China may covertly help Russia in procurement of weapons and munitions
- Why China may not be interested in a near-term resolution to the war
- Whether China is able to restrain Moscow's use of nuclear blackmail
- The Scramble for Central Asia
- Renminbi's growing power in the Russian economy
- And whether Russian elites will opt for Chinese boarding schools over UK ones to educate their offsprings

Music: Moscow-Peking (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtvEhrwFzok)

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vincent Chao, a Taiwanese politician and former diplomat and national security strategist, about why Taiwan is moving so slowly to modernize its military and increase deterrence of an existential threat of Chinese invasion.

They discuss Taiwan's messy identity politics, whether Taiwanese will fight to defend their freedoms, Chinese misinformation efforts to drive wedges in Taiwan's political system and alliances, whether Silicon Shield can protect Taiwan and why a Chinese blockade is not the major threat to the island.

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down once again with Michael Kofman, Russian military analyst, who has just returned from visiting the frontline in Bakhmut, to talk about his observations on the fighting there, as well as common misperceptions about Wagner Group,  impact of Western training programs on Ukrainian military force composition, the adaptations and learnings of both militaries so far in this war and the outlook for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

Music: Bakhmut Fortress  by Ukrainian rock group Antytila