Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk (Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at  RUSI and Professor at Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy) and Dara Massicot (Russian military analyst at RAND) about the dire implications of the dwindling stocks of Ukrainian air defense interceptors and what can be done to solve that problem. 
Justin makes a strong case for how only a dozen or so Swedish Saab Gripen jets could make a huge difference for Ukrainian objective to make Russian air power irrelevant in this war and Dara proposes an asymmetric response to deny Russian military launch platforms from which they could strike Ukraine. 
Also, in the podcast:
- Why F-16s are a terrible fit for Ukrainian airfields and the dilemma the US would face in providing the newest AMRAAM missiles for them (that Ukraine would need) without jeopardizing US air superiority in the potential conflict with China
- How the Russian Air Force is likely to carpet-bomb Ukrainian cities, provide increased close air support to its ground forces and target Ukrainian logistics/ammo depots/force concentrations and HIMARS launchers if they achieve air superiority over the skies in Ukraine
- The challenges with producing Soviet air defense interceptor missiles outside of Russia
- Why Western air defense systems (Patriots, NASAMS, IRIS-T, etc) are not a replacement for the large quantities of Ukrainian S-300s and Buks
- How countermeasures on Russian fighter jets have actually been effective in limiting their combat losses against MANPADS like Stingers
- Why Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are considered the most professional and most responsive to learning units in the Russian military
- The success of Ukrainian counter-UAV battle against Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones and how a phone app is making a key difference for Ukraine in that fight

Music: "Flygkadetten Marsch"  (The Aviation Cadet March) of the Swedish Air Force

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Alexander Gabuev (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and Sergey Radchenko (Johns Hopkins SAIS), two of the foremost experts on the true nature of the China-Russia relationship. Topics discussed:
- The signs that the Xi-Putin summit in Moscow last month may have achieved more substance  than many may realize
- How China may covertly help Russia in procurement of weapons and munitions
- Why China may not be interested in a near-term resolution to the war
- Whether China is able to restrain Moscow's use of nuclear blackmail
- The Scramble for Central Asia
- Renminbi's growing power in the Russian economy
- And whether Russian elites will opt for Chinese boarding schools over UK ones to educate their offsprings

Music: Moscow-Peking (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtvEhrwFzok)

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vincent Chao, a Taiwanese politician and former diplomat and national security strategist, about why Taiwan is moving so slowly to modernize its military and increase deterrence of an existential threat of Chinese invasion.

They discuss Taiwan's messy identity politics, whether Taiwanese will fight to defend their freedoms, Chinese misinformation efforts to drive wedges in Taiwan's political system and alliances, whether Silicon Shield can protect Taiwan and why a Chinese blockade is not the major threat to the island.

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down once again with Michael Kofman, Russian military analyst, who has just returned from visiting the frontline in Bakhmut, to talk about his observations on the fighting there, as well as common misperceptions about Wagner Group,  impact of Western training programs on Ukrainian military force composition, the adaptations and learnings of both militaries so far in this war and the outlook for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

Music: Bakhmut Fortress  by Ukrainian rock group Antytila

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Michael Kofman to discuss the strategic mistakes of Russia's current offensive in the Donbas and the prospects of an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

We also dive into the implications of the remarkable Prigozhin vs Shoigu gangland-style fight ('razborki' in Russian) and how Russian incompetence may have been the best Ukrainian asset in this war. Mike predicts another Russian mobilization wave may come later this year. And for the one year anniversary of the war, we discuss what we have gotten wrong thus far and why.

Music: Ukrainian Fury (Ukrainian adaptation of Bella Ciao) by Khrystyna Soloviy

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to David Bramlette, a former U.S. Ranger and Green Beret combat veteran, who has recently returned from fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. David shares his experiences of the war, why he went over to risk his life for a foreign country, his impressions of the Russian and Ukrainian forces, and what happens when Americans get wounded in Ukraine.

Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Silverado's own experts - Sarah Stewart (CEO) and Andy David (Senior Director of Research and Analysis) about Silverado's new just published research report that dives deep into the analysis of Russian import trade flows to figure out how Russia is working around the export controls and sanctions it has been put under since the invasion of Ukraine. The report finds that Russia benefited from high inventory levels prior to the war and is now benefiting from China and many former Soviet republic countries transhipping goods into Russia. We also discussed our recommendations for US policy makers on how to tighten up the sanctions and export control regime to make it more effective.

"Russia Shifting Import Sources Amid U.S. and Allied Export Restrictions" report download link: https://silverado.org/news/report-russia-shifting-import-sources-amid-u-s-and-allied-export-restrictions

Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has taken back all of the territory lost since February 2022. 
In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch once again talks to Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, who challenges that notion. Sergii makes a compelling case that Ukraine is likely to try to retake Crimea as part of an upcoming new offensive.

Other topics covered in an in-depth conversation about the state of the war:
- Why Ukraine is fighting so hard for Bakhmut despite taking devastating losses there
- Why Kreminna and Svatove are even more important than Bakhmut
- The vital importance of the barely noticed fight at Vulhledar in the South
- Is it possible for Ukrainian forces to cross the Dnipro river
- Why the latest supplies of western Infantry Fighting Vehicles and tanks may not help as much as many think
- How Ukraine is maintaining the Noah's Ark of western weapons donations
- Why Ukraine has not attempted to destroy the North Crimean Canal and the real situation with the water supplies to Crimea
- Why there is only one real general in the Russian military
- Where is Ukraine expecting a new Russian offensive 
- Why the stories of Russian forces being unmotivated to fight is largely a myth
- Why Kharkiv remains a key priority for Russia
- Why Ukraine is not worried about a new offensive from Belarus
- and much more

Music: "There beyond the fogs" Ukrainian take on a popular patriotic song from a Russian rock band Lyube, rewritten with lyrics about the explosions in Crimea (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DSAnQrTELQ)