Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert, to assess the damage that has been inflicted upon the Iranian nuclear program over the course of the past 11 days and potential for reconstitution.

00:00 Introduction

00:49 Assessment of Damage to Each Part of the Iranian Nuclear Program

07:34 What is the Level of Difficulty of Reconstitution?

09:53 Did Iran Evacuate Fordow?

11:55 The Importance of the 400kg of Highly Enriched Uranium issue

12:49 Where Is the New Secret Enrichment Facility?

13:58 What Are the Nonproliferation Lessons From This War?

16:26 Impact of the Assassinations of Nuclear Scientists

18:16 Capabilities of Iran's Ballistic Missiles

20:27 Origins of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Designs

22:46 Is There a Legitimate Need for Iran to Have Uranium Enrichment?

24:45 Was The War Worth It?

32:31 What Will Iran Do Next?

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Israeli Gen Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three Middle Eastern nuclear weapons programs: first, as an F-16 pilot in 1981 against Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, as Head of Military Intelligence in 2007 against Syrian nuclear reactor Al Kibar, and in various IDF roles for the last nearly 20 years planning the current operation against Iran.

00:00 Introduction

01:29 Strategic Objectives of the Operation Against Iran

07:30 How to Deal With Fordow Enrichment Facility

08:16 Shocking Success

11:20 Danger of Euphoria

14:08 Where Are the Iranian Proxies?

15:40 Threat to the Strait of Hormuz

18:00 Khamenei's Psychological State and Strategic Decisions

20:56 Likelihood of Regime Change

23:38 Implications for the Broader Middle East

Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Andrei Lankov, one of the west’s foremost experts on North Korea, and Sergey Radchenko, a leading Cold War historian, for a deep dive into North Korea. They discuss the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program and possibility of a new war, the chances of a Trump-brokered peace deal with Kim Jong Un, and the nature of North Korea’s relationships with China, Russia, and Iran. Andrei also offers rare insights into daily life under the regime, its surveillance state, hackers and IT workers, political succession, and long-term foreign policy ambitions.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Can Trump Get a Peace Deal Done With North Korea?

15:19 Does Kim Jong Un Need America as an Enemy?

18:36 Chances of a Second Korean War and Nuclear Weapons Use

22:58 China's Frustrations With North Korea

27:17 China's Concerns of Nuclear Proliferation Across Asia

29:49 Nature of Transactional Relationships Between North Korea and China/Russia

35:28 Iran-North Korea Relationship

40:16 Why Do North Korean Soldiers Commit Suicide Rather Than Surrender?

44:52 Life in North Korean GULAGs

47:04 The Intricacies of Societal Surveillance in North Korea

51:21 Technology Use and Intranet Access in North Korea

54:24 North Korean Hackers and IT Workers

01:02:40 Female Empowerment in North Korea

01:15:21 Does North Korea Have the World's Most Effective Foreign Policy?

Dmitri and Sergey's NYT article about the potential for a peace deal with North Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/opinion/us-north-korea-china-russia-axis.html

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian economy expert Chris Weafer about the state of the Russian economy in 2025. They talk about inflation and its impact on people and business, why the ruble is collapsing, which sanctions have been the most impactful, and the one thing that could potentially trigger a crash and give Ukraine leverage to negotiate an acceptable peace deal

Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.

They discuss:

- Putin's frustrations about limitations of nuclear blackmail and his responses to the ATACMS targeting decision by the Biden Administration

- What the new Russian nuclear doctrine means for World War III prospects

- What the Ukraine conflict teaches us about nuclear deterrence theory

- Putin's real redlines

- Implications of the Oreshik (RS 26) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against Ukraine

- Why ballistic missile notification regime is a GoodThingTM

- The resumption of the Iranian nuclear warhead design program - How to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup

- How many nukes does the US need for comprehensive deterrence

Russian nuclear doctrine changes thread by Oleg Shakirov: https://x.com/shakirov2036/status/1858810939652370886

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) about the latest updates in the evolution of drone warfare on the battlefields in Ukraine.

They discuss:

- How Ground Unmanned Vehicles (GUVs) are being used in battle

- 3rd Generation FPV drones

- Quadcopter bombers

- Mass-market EW systems

- Fiber optics C2

- EW recon units

- Use of aerial drones for anti-drone/aircraft warfare

- Impact of Chinese export controls

- Thermite 'Dracarys' drones

- Mothership drones

- Long-range deep strike drones

- Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance drones

- How Starlink is giving Russia an advantage!

- How commercial satellite imagery of Ukrainian lands may be playing into Russia's hands

- Why the US and Ukrainian use-cases for drone warfare are so dramatically different

- Introduction of autonomy in unmanned systems

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Constantine Kalinovskiy (@Teoyaomiquu), a Ukrainian combat vet with friends currently in battle, about how the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve tactical surprise with their August 6th offensive into Russian Kursk oblast, the achievable objectives of this operation and the risks that it brings.

They discussed the achievements to date, the potential for holding newly captured Russian territory and the challenges that the Ukrainian forces currently face there.

Constantine also discussed how his 501c(3) charity, LibertyUkraine.org, is providing vital and life saving combat support engineering equipment like excavators and generators to Ukrainian troops.

After many months long wait, F-16s have finally arrived in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians likely to use them and what are the challenges and opportunities presented by the introduction of this new weapons platform?

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk,  Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and and the editor of a just released book "The Air War in Ukraine."

They discussed why F-16s will not play a transformative role on the battlefield, why Ukraine still needs Swedish Gripens, the opportunities for the use of Harpoons on F-16s to target Black Sea Fleet, opportunities for integration of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, the growing danger presented by Russian surveillance drones penetrating deeper and deeper into Ukrainian territory which is driving the urgency for development of anti-UAV UAV solutions, PATRIOT battery performance so far in Ukraine and discussion on the longer-term future of air power and integration challenges of combat jets with unmanned loyal wingman systems.

Music: Zaporizhian March